October 28, 2024 (Globalinvestorideas.com Newswire) Globalinvestorideas.com, a go-to platform for big investing ideas releases market commentary from Samer Hasn, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com.
Oil prices fell more than 5% today for both vertical benchmarks, erasing the remaining gains they made this month.
Today’s drop in oil prices reflects a reassessment of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, following Israel’s recent attack, which avoided targeting oil or nuclear facilities, easing concerns over the safety of crude supplies.
Previous talk about the possibility of targeting Iran’s critical facilities, and the potential disruption to crude supplies from Iran or from regional countries as a result of an escalation in the war, had sparked fears in the markets and sent prices higher for some time.
But that was about this round of escalation. Now, we see talk about the features of the next round of escalation, which will take place after the end of the US presidential elections – which are believed to have influenced the decision about the nature of the attack to prevent oil prices from rising simultaneously.
The details of the latest Israeli attack may reveal the features of this next round of conflict. Several air defense systems surrounding vital oil facilities in Iran were targeted, according to The New York Times.
That said, I believe, may be an indication that it is a prelude to clearing the airspace for targeting those oil facilities in the next attack.
While Iran has threatened to respond to the last attack, this response may encourage Israel to carry out another counter-response that may actually target those facilities. The next Iranian attacks may also be unprecedented and may include launching up to a thousand ballistic missiles and escalating attacks on its allies in the region and targeting oil supplies and navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, according to what Iranian officials told The New York Times last week. While the last Israeli attack may also encourage Iran more and more to possess nuclear weapons, according to The Times.
In addition, the return of Donald Trump to the White House may encourage Israel to target Iranian nuclear or oil facilities. While we do not see any significant advantage for either candidate in the presidential race over the other, oil market may remain in a state of uncertainty, leaving them vulnerable to high volatility.
All of this comes with the resumption of ceasefire talks in Gaza with the meeting of officials in Doha yesterday, according to CNN. While I do not believe that this round of negotiations will end with an actual breakthrough, this is in light of each party’s insistence on demands that the other party completely rejects, in addition to previous accusations and reports about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s lack of seriousness in negotiating.
Away from the Middle East, and on the economic front, this week hosts a series of key economic data, most notably the labor market and GDP figures in the US, in addition to the manufacturing activity PMI reports in the US and China.
All of this comes before the Federal Reserve meeting next week, which is expected to continue cutting interest rates, but at a slower pace than before, at only 25 basis points.
Also, next week, we will witness a meeting that extends throughout the working days of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress of China, which is expected to come out with more anticipated decisions regarding the support packages provided to the economy, which markets are counting on to revive oil prices.
Technical Outlook for West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (USOIL)
Technically, and on the daily time frame, US crude breaks below the 68.944 level and opens on a bearish gap below. This would keep the eyes of the sellers on the 66.585-65.724 levels. On the other hand, regaining the 68.944 level again could redirect the eyes to the 71.767-72.736 levels.
Disclaimer
Global Investor Ideas is part of the Investorideas.com content umbrella and is owned by Econ Corporate Services Inc. For Investorideas disclosure and disclaimer please visit the site directly
Disclaimer/Disclosure: GlobalInvestorideas.com is a digital publisher of third party sourced news, articles and equity research as well as creates original content, including video, interviews and articles. Original content created by GlobalInvestorideas and investorideas is protected by copyright laws other than syndication rights. Our site does not make recommendations for purchases or sale of stocks, services or products. Nothing on our sites should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell products or securities. All investing involves risk and possible losses. If we are not the source for content but just a publisher , please contact the source of all content for questions and info. We are not responsible for third party content.