November 28, 2024 (Globalinvestorideas.com Newswire) Globalinvestorideas.com, a go-to platform for big investing ideas releases market commentary from Quasar Elizundia, Expert Research Strategist at Pepperstone.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2025 creates an atmosphere of uncertainty for global financial markets, and Latin America is no exception. This uncertainty has the potential to impact the region’s export sector in various ways, while the slowdown in global economic growth outside the United States will likely continue weighing on Latin American economies. In this context, capital flows to the region could be dampened in the coming calendar year, and with a more volatile external environment, a substantial recovery for LATAM currencies seems challenging for 2025.
This outlook examines the prospects for the Mexican peso (MXN), Colombian peso (COP), and Chilean peso (CLP).
Mexican peso (MXN): Relative Protection from the USMCA, Despite Uncertainty
The Mexican peso faces an uncertain landscape in 2025, primarily due to trade policies that the Trump administration could implement. While the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) should provide some protection against a more restrictive global trade environment, recent statements by President-elect Donald Trump, including potential tariff increases of up to 25% for Mexico and Canada, pose a significant risk to Mexico’s economy. Although the treaty is not formally scheduled for review until 2026, the process could generate additional tensions in trade relations between Mexico and the United States. For now, expected modifications are likely to focus on limiting imports of products from China, particularly in key sectors such as automotive and electronics.
In the short term, political headlines could suppress appetite for the MXN. However, the USMCA is likely to remain in place, which could provide eventual relief for the peso. Negotiations may also focus on ensuring that local reforms, such as judicial ones, do not breach the agreement. It is worth noting that while the United States may adopt a more nationalist stance, it is unlikely to completely close its doors to trade. Mexico should remain an important ally as the U.S. continues to compete with the Asian giant, China.
In terms of monetary policy, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) is expected to proceed cautiously with its easing cycle, with a terminal rate anticipated at 9% from the current 10.25%. This could limit the depreciation of the peso against the dollar, but uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trade and immigration policies will keep volatility high.
Colombian peso (COP): Vulnerable to External Factors and Weak Fundamentals
The Colombian peso is in a particularly vulnerable position in 2025, due to a combination of external and internal factors affecting its performance. External uncertainties, such as weakened global growth outside the United States and expected lower oil prices (with an average of $75 per barrel in 2025 versus $80 in 2024), could weigh on Colombia’s finances. This scenario is exacerbated by internal fiscal risks, such as the difficulty of reducing the fiscal deficit to pre-pandemic levels of 3% of GDP. Estimates suggest the fiscal deficit for 2024 and 2025 will remain above 5% of GDP, with debt-to-GDP ratios exceeding 60%.
Low tax revenues and attempts to modify the fiscal rule are key concerns for investors. These factors position the COP as one of the most vulnerable currencies in the region.
Chilean peso (CLP): China’s Slowdown
The Chilean peso faces a relatively different scenario in 2025, where slower growth in China could act as a negative factor for the country. However, increased stockpiling of raw materials could help support commodity prices. China has intensified its focus on stockpiling commodities and strengthening trade with “friendly” nations such as Chile, which could help prevent a significant decline in Chilean exports. It is important to note that China is Chile’s main trading partner, demanding large quantities of one of Chile’s key resources: copper, with over half of copper exports directed to the Asian giant.
However, a key vulnerability for the CLP is the increasingly narrow rate differential with the U.S., amid a context of “American exceptionalism” and persistent inflation in the United States. The Central Bank of Chile is expected to lower rates from the current 5.25% to 4.5% in 2025, which could make the CLP less attractive to international investors.
Conclusion: A Complex Environment for LATAM FX in 2025
The outlook for Latin American currencies in 2025 is complex, marked by political and economic uncertainty. Donald Trump’s return to the White House introduces a significant degree of uncertainty, particularly around trade policies that could impact the export sectors of Mexico, Colombia, and Chile in various ways. While the USMCA may offer some protection for the MXN, the COP and CLP face significant risks due to weak internal fundamentals and slowing global growth.
In summary, investors should prepare for a challenging and volatile environment in 2025, remaining alert to policy changes and economic signals at both national and global levels. Each country’s ability to adapt to these challenges will be crucial to the performance of its respective currency in what promises to be one of the most complicated years for LATAM FX in recent times.
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