US Firms to Post Bumper Earnings This Season Despite Iran War

Corporate America is set to deliver bumper earnings despite the Iran war, predicts the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organisations.

The bullish prediction from Nigel Green of deVere Group comes as expectations for first-quarter earnings across the S&P 500 continue to climb, even against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical tension in the Middle East and elevated oil prices.

Bank of America and Morgan Stanley report today, Netflix and PepsiCo tomorrow, with Big Tech—including Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, and Amazon—all next week.

“Corporate America is heading into this earnings season with serious momentum,” says Nigel Green.

“Forecasts have strengthened in recent weeks, and the underlying drivers are clear: a weaker dollar, robust fiscal stimulus under President Trump, and resilient global demand.”

Analysts now expect S&P 500 companies to deliver double-digit earnings growth for the first quarter of 2026, with consensus estimates pointing to around 12% year-on-year expansion.

Some projections suggest growth could push closer to 18–19%, marking one of the strongest quarters since the post-pandemic rebound period.

“Markets have absorbed a surge in oil prices and ongoing geopolitical strain without derailing earnings expectations,” the deVere CEO explains.

“Investors are recognizing that the macro environment, while noisy, is not undermining corporate profitability.”

He points to the policies of President Donald Trump as a critical force shaping the current outlook.

“The administration’s tax and spending agenda is feeding directly into earnings strength,” he says.

“Incentives for capital investment, alongside broader tax cuts, are driving business activity and supporting margins at a time when companies are also benefiting from operational discipline built over recent years.”

Currency dynamics are adding further support. The US dollar remains weaker compared with its levels at the start of 2025, boosting the overseas earnings of multinational corporations.

“A softer dollar is a powerful tailwind for US companies with global exposure,” he notes.

“Sectors such as tech, materials, and energy are seeing revenue translated more favorably, which flows through into stronger earnings prints.”

He adds that the earnings story is not uniform across sectors, with clear divergence emerging beneath the headline numbers.

“Tech continues to dominate the earnings narrative,” he says.

“Large-cap innovators remain the primary engine of profit growth, driven by sustained demand for AI and tech infrastructure.

“Energy is benefiting from higher commodity prices, although prior weakness means the rebound is more measured than some might expect.”

“Industrials and other energy-intensive sectors are under greater pressure from rising input costs,” Nigel Green continues.

“This dispersion reinforces the importance of selective positioning rather than broad-brush exposure.”

These results will be pivotal. Financials will give a read on economic momentum, while tech will determine whether the market’s earnings expectations remain justified.

Recent market performance underscores the resilience he describes. Equities have rebounded strongly following news of a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran, with the S&P 500 recovering close to pre-conflict levels.

“Investors are looking through short-term geopolitical events and focusing on fundamentals,” he says. “Earnings growth of this magnitude provides a strong anchor for valuations.”

Nigel Green argues that the current environment highlights a recurring pattern in markets.

“Periods of uncertainty often coincide with opportunity,” he says.

“Geopolitical tensions, currency shifts, and policy changes create volatility, but they don’t automatically translate into weaker corporate performance.”

He concludes: “Strong earnings in the face of global volatility reinforce a key principle: staying invested remains essential.”

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