Stuck, Stalling... and Slowly Tilting - Metals Start to Diverge

At first glance, not much has changed. But look closer… and the picture becomes more interesting.

The dollar remains stuck in consolidation, while metals are starting to lose upside momentum and, in some cases, quietly shift toward the downside. It’s not a decisive move yet… but the balance is starting to tilt.
 

The U.S. Dollar Index (DX.F) 

Compared to yesterday, one thing stands out - the bullish gap that formed at the start of the previous Asian session has now been officially closed - a point for the bears.

At the same time, bulls gained something of their own, as daily indicators have flipped into buy signals. 

So, where does that leave us? 

Despite a white candle forming on the chart, the dollar remains trapped within a narrow orange consolidation range. And that tells us one thing: nothing has really changed in terms of structure, therefore, the key levels and scenarios from yesterday remain fully valid. 

Key Levels to Watch:
Supports: 97.56-97.82 (green support zone) / 97.36
Resistances: 98.15/98.16 / 98.60 / 98.75-99.68

Gold (GC.F) & Silver (SI.F) these sections are reserved for Premium readers today.
 

Copper (HG.F)

This is one of the cleaner structures right now. 

The quote from April 14 turned out to be a good compass for recent price action: 

“(…) What’s next? 

Currently, the price has broken above 61.8% Fibonacci, and indicators remain supportive, which suggests that further improvement could be just around the corner.

Outlook

Bullish scenario: continuation toward next upside targets: 608.50-613.75 (resistance zone) (…)”

Price followed the bullish scenario from the previous Lab and reached the next upside target last week.

The pullback that followed looks relatively shallow in the context of the prior move, and that matters because shallow corrections often signal underlying strength. 

As long as the small bullish gap from April 14 (599.05-600.35) remains open, the bullish structure is still intact. At this point, it is worth noting something important - that zone has already been held twice, which makes it a key level to watch. 

Only a confirmed close below it would open the path lower. Until then, another attempt to retest last week’s highs remains on the table. 

Key Levels to Watch:
Supports: 599.05-600.35
Resistances: 608.50-613.75

Platinum (PL.F) this section is reserved for Premium readers today.
 

Palladium (PA.F)

This is where things get more complex.

On one hand, we have a series of positive technical developments:

• breakout above the black declining channel
• closure of the March 19 gap
• move toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.

On the other hand…

That same move pushed price directly into a strong resistance zone, reinforced by the March 18 gap (1612-1633) and price hasn’t cleared it. Add to that the ongoing consolidation since April 9, and the picture becomes clear: the market is stuck. 

Therefore, in our opinion, as long as the price remains below 1633, upside is capped. And with daily indicators shifting bearish, the risk of a move toward the lower boundary of the consolidation at 1476 is increasing. 

For now, expect continued sideways movement - until the breakout resolves it. 

Key Levels to Watch:
Supports: 1476 / 1430
Resistances: 1612-1633

Today’s Takeaway 

Dollar + Metals 

Bullish scenario: (…)

Bearish scenario: (…)

Key takeaway: metals are transitioning and that’s where the risk shifts.

Final Thought: nothing has fully broken, nothing has fully reversed, but the tone… is starting to change, which suggests that the next bigger move could be just around the corner. 

Stay patient, respect the levels, and let the market show its hand before committing fresh risk.
Anna