Five Charts, One Critical Question

The markets are testing some of the most important support zones on the charts.

Gold is once again locked in a battle around the psychologically critical 4,500 level, while silver and platinum are struggling to reclaim lost ground after failing to close their bearish gaps. At the same time, the U.S. dollar remains technically strong despite a short-term pullback, which continues to add pressure to the metals complex. Today’s closing prices could be pivotal, as they will show whether buyers are ready to launch a meaningful counterattack or whether sellers are preparing for another leg lower.

U.S. Dollar Index (DX.F)

From today’s perspective, not much has changed. Even though the dollar pulled back yesterday, all of the key support levels we highlighted in the previous Lab are still intact. In other words, the technical structure remains largely unchanged, and yesterday’s commentary is still very much up to date.

Platinum (PL.F)

Platinum is telling a very similar story to gold and silver.

Once again, the bulls were unable to close yesterday’s bearish gap, and that failure exposed their weakness. The bears wasted little time taking advantage of it, pushing the price back below the black support line.

From a technical standpoint, that suggests further deterioration may be just around the corner, with the 1,800 area emerging as the next important support zone to watch.

Palladium (PA.F)

Let’s start this section with a quote from May 8:

“(…) bulls (…) need to show real determination here - especially to defend their current key ally: the bullish gap from May 5 between 1481 and 1494). 

Because if that gap gets closed, the market will most likely move very quickly toward a test of the lower boundary of the orange consolidation. 

And what if bulls fail there too? 

Then traders should be prepared for a move toward 1425 - or potentially even 1387 over the coming sessions. (…)”

Looking at the chart today, we can see that the market unfolded exactly in line with our bearish scenario, and sellers reached our downside target (congratulations to everyone who trusted the setup and locked in profits along the way!).

So, what could happen next?

With today’s decline, palladium has dropped into the green support zone between 1,357 and 1,375. This area represents the bulls’ last meaningful line of defense before the market turns its attention to the March low.

That makes today’s closing price especially important. If buyers step in here, we could see at least an attempt at a counterattack, but if this support zone fails, the road toward 1,315 may open surprisingly quickly.

Today’s Takeaways

For the U.S. Dollar Index

• Watch 98.72-98.68 because this support zone remains the bulls’ first line of defense.
• As long as price holds above this area, the broader bullish structure remains intact.
• Break above 99.30 -> opens the door to 99.69.
• Weekly close above 99.00 -> strengthens the case for an eventual move toward 100.00.
• Daily close below 98.72 -> increases the odds of a pullback toward 98.45.

For Platinum

• Watch the 1,980-2,002 area because buyers need to reclaim this zone to improve the technical picture.
• Break above 2,002 and close the bearish gap -> opens the door to a rebound toward 2,048.
• Daily close below current support -> increases the odds of a drop toward 1,800.

Bottom line: Platinum is on shaky ground. Bulls need a strong close above 2,000 to shift momentum back in their favor.

For Palladium

• Watch the 1,357-1,375 support zone because this is the bulls’ last major line of defense before the March low.
• As long as this zone holds, a technical rebound remains possible.
• Daily close below 1,357 -> opens downside continuation toward 1,315.

Bottom line: Palladium has reached a critical support area. Today’s close should reveal whether buyers are ready to fight back or whether the downtrend will accelerate.

Trading Lesson of the Day

When price reaches major support, the most important question is not whether the market “should” bounce, but whether buyers actually show up.

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