May 16, 2024 (Globalinvestorideas.com Newswire) S&P 500 delivered the upswing bonds were tipping it to do since late last week, as per my weekend analysis released as promised yesterday.
(…) Look not just at corporate bonds that keep showing greater resilience than the higher for longer mantra would imply – both in 2024, and even when only Thursday and Friday reaction to opposing macroeconomic data is considered (look at the unwillingness to sell the stagflationary data hard as daily volume reveals). USD failure to rally much deserves equal attention.
The same conclusion of what kind of a move S&P 500 is setting up to, is confirmed by precious metals with gold and silver merely pausing Friday – not reversing. Look at the sectors leading the S&P 500 advance – I talked lately that it would be financials (and industrials) leading the next upleg, and see how well they are seconded by consumer staples and utilities. All of these smack of increasing focus on cash flow valuation in a declining rates environment.
This is nowhere better seen than in the TLT daily candles Thursday and Friday, with the lack of daily volume behind the sellers.
Therefore I think that Monday would be a trappy, little volatile day, and neither Tuesday before PPI would be a hard down day. Just enough sideways to a little down perhaps to create confusion before the PPI aftermath turns into a springboard as the Fed would even more so Wednesday see building the case for (again promising) a rate cut withour totally destroing its credibility (job market can justify a projected cut when inflation data don’t come in raging hot). As an added benefit, that would help bolster the dismal consumer perceptions as revealed Friday.
Further bullish clues I described in our intraday channel yesterday European morning.
Yesterday changed the financial landscape in bringing rate cuts closer, with Sep being the mainstream bet now ((no cuts by Sep fell to merely 25% odds from 35% the day or week before) – it’s not an issue that Russell 2000 hasn’t traveled that far yesterday. 10y yield at 4.34% and 2y at 4.74 with USD declining to 200-day moving average, that’s what counts in propelling stocks and precious metals, my key most rewarding plays, higher.
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Let’s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today’s full scale article contains 3 more of them, with commentaries.
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S&P 500 and Nasdaq
In such a strong macroeconomic driven move, it’s pointless to call out the resistances that fell – for today, 5,320s at worst, and low 5,330s at best, must be considered as supports.
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.