December 3, 2024 (Globalinvestorideas.com Newswire) Globalinvestorideas.com, a go-to platform for big investing ideas releases market commentary from Rania Gule, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com.
Gold prices saw a notable decline today, Tuesday, dropping below the $2,640 per ounce level, reflecting a sense of caution in the financial markets ahead of the upcoming U.S. employment data. In my opinion, this drop occurred despite gold remaining within its recent range-bound trading, confirming that traders are waiting for further signals from the Federal Reserve regarding the future of monetary policy, especially with the impending release of the U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which could be a key indicator for understanding the central bank’s future direction.
The U.S. dollar is also gradually recovering from the pressure caused by recent statements from Federal Reserve policymakers, which have affected gold’s performance, as it typically has an inverse relationship with the dollar. The comments by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, indicating that monetary policy remains sufficiently restrictive, highlighted the possibility of a slower pace in interest rate cuts in the future, leading to mixed reactions in the markets. These statements reduced gold’s appeal as a haven, but at the same time, they suggested the likelihood of ongoing inflation pressures, a factor that supports gold prices in the long term.
From my perspective, global tensions continue to contribute to a decline in risk appetite among investors. In particular, the threat from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to impose tariffs on BRICS nations has heightened concerns, with the U.S. dollar partially benefiting from its role as a haven. At the same time, these worries have hurt gold prices. On the other hand, concerns about a slowdown in the Chinese economy remain a key influencing factor, weakening confidence in global financial markets and pushing investors to adopt a cautious approach to their trades.
In my view, current indicators suggest further weakness for gold prices, as it is trading below the 21-day simple moving average at $2,641, indicating downward pressure on the price. Additionally, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a bearish trend, suggesting a potential continuation of the decline in the short term. However, this situation could change quickly if the U.S. jobs data disappoints or if geopolitical tensions increase, which could push gold higher as a safe-haven asset.
With the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data approaching on Friday, the markets appear to be on alert. Expectations for an additional interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve are fueling hesitation among investors. With a 75% probability of a 25 basis point cut, it’s clear that the Fed’s dovish stance may benefit gold in the short term. The challenge lies in balancing these expectations with any signals the employment data might offer regarding the strength of the U.S. labour market.
I also believe that the ongoing geopolitical tensions, especially between Russia and Ukraine and in the Middle East, add another layer of uncertainty. If these conflicts escalate, they could push investors to increase their positions in gold as a haven, which may reflect the current upward trend. In my opinion, in this context, gold remains poised to benefit from any geopolitical escalation or weakness in the U.S. dollar.
Overall, the gold market presents a mix of influencing factors that make it difficult to determine a clear direction. While the wait for U.S. employment data and concerns over monetary policy are making investors cautious, geopolitical tensions and global economic concerns remain factors supporting the likelihood of gold turning upward soon. Under these circumstances, investors should carefully monitor key data, as its outcomes could significantly alter market trends and reshape price expectations.
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